Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 0.004203 0.004422 0.004646 0.004894 0.005160 0.005438 0.005752
2025-09-07 0.003779 0.004096 0.004436 0.004829 0.005272 0.005757 0.006333
2025-09-14 0.003501 0.003870 0.004277 0.004760 0.005323 0.005962 0.006749
2025-09-21 0.003332 0.003742 0.004204 0.004767 0.005441 0.006229 0.007230
2025-09-28 0.003105 0.003529 0.004015 0.004619 0.005356 0.006238 0.007389
2025-10-05 0.002988 0.003436 0.003957 0.004616 0.005437 0.006443 0.007791
2025-10-12 0.002928 0.003404 0.003967 0.004692 0.005614 0.006770 0.008362
2025-10-19 0.002820 0.003307 0.003892 0.004656 0.005645 0.006908 0.008687
2025-10-26 0.002727 0.003225 0.003829 0.004630 0.005683 0.007052 0.009024
2025-11-02 0.002639 0.003144 0.003764 0.004596 0.005706 0.007175 0.009335
2025-11-09 0.002606 0.003132 0.003784 0.004671 0.005875 0.007499 0.009946
2025-11-16 0.002536 0.003068 0.003735 0.004652 0.005914 0.007645 0.010304
2025-11-23 0.002464 0.002999 0.003677 0.004620 0.005935 0.007768 0.010638
2025-11-30 0.002384 0.002919 0.003602 0.004560 0.005914 0.007827 0.010880
2025-12-07 0.002308 0.002841 0.003526 0.004497 0.005883 0.007869 0.011094
2025-12-14 0.002263 0.002802 0.003502 0.004503 0.005952 0.008060 0.011553
2025-12-21 0.002167 0.002693 0.003378 0.004366 0.005806 0.007921 0.011467
2025-12-28 0.002126 0.002655 0.003351 0.004363 0.005856 0.008080 0.011880
2026-01-04 0.002113 0.002655 0.003375 0.004433 0.006016 0.008416 0.012612
2026-01-11 0.002064 0.002606 0.003328 0.004400 0.006019 0.008504 0.012922
2026-01-18 0.002021 0.002562 0.003289 0.004376 0.006034 0.008611 0.013271
2026-01-25 0.001978 0.002517 0.003247 0.004345 0.006036 0.008696 0.013585
2026-02-01 0.001969 0.002520 0.003271 0.004414 0.006196 0.009048 0.014410